Blk. Realty - Uruguay
Illustration: Blk.
Lula's re-election took the markets by surprise and the real lost value within hours. We review the data, the lessons of recent history and the scenarios that we at Blk. Realty believe are possible for Punta del Este and the rest of Uruguay.
On 25 October 2026, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) was re-elected president of Brazil with 51.79% of valid votes, against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The result overturned the first round on 4 October, in which Flávio had come first with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%.
The reaction was immediate. According to Agência Brasil (26 October 2026), the Ibovespa fell 13.88% that Monday and the dollar rose 8.21% to R$ 5.403, its largest daily rise since January 1999. UOL Economia (27 October 2026) described it as the worst market reaction to an election since 2002. Reuters/UOL (26 October 2026) reported that the market had begun to price in the possibility that the Selic rate, currently 13.75%, would stop falling or even rise at the Copom meeting in November.
In his programme, Lula proposes keeping the current fiscal framework (arcabouço fiscal), with a primary surplus target of 1.5% of GDP by 2030, and maintaining higher taxation of offshore structures, exclusive funds and dividends, according to InfoMoney and to Folha (13 August 2026).
For anyone buying or holidaying in Uruguay with reais, the effect was felt straight away. According to Código Público, citing Correo de Punta del Este, BROU's buying rate for the real dropped to UYU 6.45 on Monday, from UYU 7.10 the previous Friday: a fall of 9.15% in 72 hours. In other words, Uruguay became more expensive for Brazilians overnight.
Illustration: Blk. Source: Código Público (citing Correo de Punta del Este)
This comes at a time when the Brazilian presence had been growing. According to an estimate by the Punta del Este-Maldonado Real Estate Chamber (Cámara Inmobiliaria), cited by InfoMoney and by O Dia (September 2026), Brazilians bought between 1,100 and 1,300 properties in Punta del Este and Maldonado between 2024 and the first half of 2026, and their share of purchases rose from 4–5% to 7–8%. This is the Chamber's estimate, not an official figure: Uruguay does not publish official statistics on buyers by nationality.
The Maldonado market is also in good shape. According to DGR data published by the INE, 9,473 sales were registered in the department in 2025, 8% more than in 2024, with a record 1,168 transactions in December.
This is not the first time a neighbour has moved the Uruguayan market. During Brazil's 2015-16 crisis, with the real devalued, fewer Brazilians came: enquiries for Réveillon (New Year's Eve) fell 5%, offset by Uruguayans and Argentines (Pasaporte News). According to specialists cited by InfoNegocios, prices in Punta del Este fell by between 5% and 25% and enquiries from Brazilians wishing to sell doubled; El Cronista reported oversupply and haggling reaching the property sector.
Argentina shows the other side of the coin. Under currency controls (the cepo), Uruguayan tax residency certificates requested by Argentines rose from 207 in 2019 to 641 in 2020, according to La Nación (AR). Today, according to El País (Uruguay), Argentines account for around 65–70% of foreign property investment. That cycle, which tends to follow its own course, acts as a counterweight when Brazil cools.
Uruguay offers tax residency regimes of interest to high-net-worth investors. Law 19.904 (2020) allowed those who became tax residents between 2020 and 2025 to opt for a special regime on foreign capital income, and that option must be exercised or ratified by 31/12/2026, according to the DGI. For new residents, Law 20.446 has applied since 1/1/2026; among other requirements, it provides a property investment route above UI 12,500,000 (roughly USD 2 million, an approximate figure that varies with the value of the UI and the exchange rate).
These rules come with conditions and details that vary from case to case. Before making any decision, we recommend consulting a tax adviser or accountant.
What follows is not data, but scenarios that we at Blk. Realty consider possible. None is certain, and they will depend above all on the fiscal signals from the new government.
Scare and normalisation. If the government sends credible fiscal signals, we believe the real could recover part of its losses within a few weeks. In that case, the 2026-27 season could bring slightly fewer Brazilian tourists, but high-end purchases could continue the trend of recent years.
Prolonged fiscal mistrust. If the real stays weak and the Selic rises, we believe middle-income Brazilians could postpone purchases and some Brazilian owners could put properties up for sale, as happened in 2015-16. At the same time, high-net-worth investors could step up their search for diversification, with Uruguay competing against destinations such as Paraguay, Miami and Portugal.
A larger shock. Should there be debt pressures or new taxes on wealth or offshore structures beyond those announced, we believe tourism and mid-range second homes could fall sharply, while the top end of Punta del Este and José Ignacio could gain appeal as a safe haven.
There are several signals we will be following closely: the Copom meeting on 3 and 4 November, announcements from the finance minister, the real's exchange rate at BROU, Réveillon bookings, the monthly Maldonado sales figures published by the INE, and the course of the Argentine cycle.
If you are considering buying or selling in Uruguay and would like to understand how this context may affect your situation, Blk. Realty will be pleased to assist you with clear information. Please do not hesitate to contact us.
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